Commentary Reams have already been written on the drubbing received by the BJP in the crucial Bihar assembly election. The writing was writ large on the wall from the word go, but Team Modi refused to pay heed to it in a timely manner. The main reason why Team Modi lost the Bihar election is that it avoided doing everything that had the potential to divide the opposition, and instead did everything to bring the mutually warring parties together.
Lessons from the Bihar verdict Vote share politics: Lessons from the Bihar verdict Last updated on: In that article we departed from mainstream narratives of speculating who may win the elections, and who would lose. Rather, we relied on numbers, and numbers alone.
For us, the numbers revealed that the previous election results were the only source of making any predictions.
This meant, we did not predict who will win the elections, not which party will lose. We could only surmise as to what type of elections and mandate we will see this year.
That is why, while election results were shocking to many, they weren't to us. We made two predictions. Firstly, the quality of verdict will improve, and secondly, the Janata Dal-United may not repeat the success of the assembly elections. On both were spot-on. In this article, we explain our methodology and the terms we relied on making these predictions.
For some, this could be very basic.
Yet, it is a good tool to analyse the quality of electoral outcomes. More importantly, we will show why some numbers must not be ignored. For instance, consider three constituencies A, B and C with people each, where political parties X and Y are competing in an election.
X gets 90, 49 and 49 votes in A, B and C respectively, while Y gets the remaining 10, 51 and X wins in A, and Y wins in B and C. Y comes to power. Clearly, at aggregate level, more people wanted X to win the elections. But Y becomes the ruler. This is precisely the much talked demerit of the 'first past the post' system that the Indian electoral system uses.
It is possible to have a highly disproportional representation.The Bihar Election Verdict: management lessons from the field of politics Published on November 10, November 10, • Likes • 85 Comments. The second lesson from Bihar: by any definition, the electoral verdict is not for development or social justice, which usually is the plank of Left-of-the-centre parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Yadav and Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar.
By the time the final results of the Bihar Assembly elections are out, the Mahagathbandhan comprising the JD(U), RJD and Congress will be in a position to be invited by the governor of the state to form the next provincial government, with Nitish Kumar continuing as the chief minister, but Lalu Prasad Yadav calling the shots.
As I . Observers of Indian elections have become accustomed to seeing large, decisive shifts in the electorate toward one party during the electoral campaign, whether it be during the national election or the recently concluded Delhi and Bihar elections.
Nov 08, · Doublespeak, double standards and two-timing games do not ensure electoral victories, as the Bihar results show. 2. The Bihar elections were ultimately a case of "Heads you win Tails I lose" for Hindus, Hindutva and Indian monstermanfilm.com: Koenraad Elst.
Dec 08, · Vote share politics: Lessons from the Bihar verdict. The Economic and Political Weekly paper argued for the need for electoral reforms in view of this disproportional representation. In a.